Republicans' Power Grab: Chaos Looms and a Possible Backfire

The Gerrymandering Drama in Texas and Beyond

The ongoing gerrymandering battle in Texas has taken center stage, with Democratic state legislators fleeing the state to block a Republican-controlled government from implementing a mid-decade gerrymander. This move is aimed at securing additional congressional seats for Republicans, potentially shifting the balance of power in future elections.

The Texas GOP’s strategy was influenced by former President Donald Trump, who sought to ensure a Republican-controlled Congress ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Other Republican states, such as Missouri and Ohio, may follow Texas’ lead, while Democratic states like California and Illinois are considering similar tactics in response.

However, the process of redistricting is more complex than simply gaining a few House seats. Political scientists warn that aggressive gerrymandering can backfire, resulting in districts that are too lopsided and vulnerable to flipping in future elections. This phenomenon, known as “dummymandering,” has historical precedent and could pose challenges for both parties.

Democrats Can Finally Fight Back

Unlike at the federal level, where Democrats have limited power, Republican efforts to gerrymander are facing potential retaliation from Democratic leaders in other states. In California, Governor Gavin Newsom is pushing for a special election later this year, allowing voters to approve new congressional maps. If successful, these changes would take effect before the next midterm elections, helping to offset losses in Texas.

Other large Democratic-controlled states, including Illinois and New York, have also shown openness to creating their own gerrymanders. While New York and California currently use nonpartisan redistricting commissions, Governor Kathy Hochul has expressed frustration with the status quo. She has even suggested amending the state constitution to eliminate the commission, signaling a willingness to take more drastic measures.

Governors like Hochul and Illinois’ J.B. Pritzker have also welcomed protesting Democratic legislators from Texas, providing them with housing during their self-imposed exile. This support highlights the growing tension between the two parties as they prepare for the next round of political battles.

Dummymandering: A Risky Strategy

One major issue with gerrymandering is the risk of overreach. Texas Governor Greg Abbott has threatened even more extreme gerrymanders if Democrats continue to avoid the state. “If they don’t start showing up, I may start expanding,” he said. “We may make it six or seven or eight new seats we’re going to be adding on the Republican side.”

However, this approach could backfire. When parties gerrymander, they aim to create as many competitive districts as possible, rather than making all districts heavily skewed in their favor. By spreading out supportive voters across multiple districts, they can maximize their chances of winning more seats. But if done poorly, these strategies can result in vulnerable districts that flip to the opposing party.

This phenomenon, known as dummymandering, has occurred before. In Texas, Republicans lost several state legislative districts in the Dallas suburbs during the 2018 elections, despite a strong year for Democrats nationwide. With Democrats poised for a strong 2026 midterm election against an unpopular president, Republicans may need to reconsider their tactics.

Fewer Competitive Districts Left

A key reason for the rise of dummymandering is the exhaustion of competitive districts. Over time, states controlled by either party have already implemented extreme gerrymanders following major censuses, such as those in 2010 and 2020. These efforts have left fewer districts that can be easily swayed.

Additionally, the geographic sorting of voters has made it harder to draw fair districts. Democratic and Republican voters tend to live in separate areas, with Democrats concentrated in urban and suburban regions and Republicans in rural areas. This segregation makes it increasingly difficult to create balanced districts that fairly represent both parties.

As a result, the current redistricting battle in Texas represents uncharted territory. Mid-decade redistricting does occur, but not usually in such a bold manner. If Texas’ attempt sparks a chain reaction, it could lead to chaos, with every state trying to redraw its electoral maps whenever it feels disadvantaged.

The outcome of this conflict remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: the fight over redistricting is shaping the future of American politics in ways that neither party can fully predict.