Integrating Forensic Standards into Governance Operations

The Need for Evidence-Based Governance in Nigeria

In the realm of Nigerian governance, there is a persistent gap between grand promises and tangible results. Budgets are passed with optimism, policies are announced with confidence, and projects are launched with great fanfare. However, the outcomes often fall short of expectations. What has long been missing from the government's machinery is not good intentions, but verifiable accountability. A system where every Naira spent is linked to measurable progress and where public confidence is built on evidence rather than rhetoric.

This credibility gap is neither accidental nor new. In 2023, the Office of the Auditor-General for the Federation (AuGF) reported that over N300 billion remained unaccounted for across federal government Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs). Similarly, Transparency International ranked Nigeria 140th out of 180 countries on its Corruption Perception Index, despite the existence of fiscal laws and oversight mechanisms. By 2024, the national budget had crossed N27 trillion, yet many states still struggle to complete even 30 per cent of their capital projects on time or within budget.

The problem is not the absence of legal instruments. Nigeria's Public Procurement Act and Fiscal Responsibility Act are robust on paper, but enforcement remains weak. Too often, agencies submit compliance reports without supporting evidence, announce project milestones without scrutiny, and issue audit certificates that lack rigorous verification. The real challenge lies in the institutional capacity to interrogate and verify the gaps that institutional forensics is designed to fill.

Shifting Toward Science-Based Governance

A shift from paper-based oversight to science-based governance is essential. This is where institutional forensics comes into play. Rather than waiting for mismanagement to occur before taking action, forensic governance embeds early detection, digital verification, and evidence-based review into the fabric of public service. It equips institutions not only to detect failures but to prevent them.

Across various sectors, the need for this forensic approach is growing more urgent. Procurement fraud continues to plague development efforts, with inflated contracts and duplicate payments recurring frequently. Investigations into payroll fraud in several MDAs have uncovered thousands of ghost workers. The Fiscal Responsibility Commission, in its recent compliance review, highlighted over 100 agencies that failed to submit annual financial statements, a legal obligation. Meanwhile, cyber fraud in Nigeria cost over $500 million in 2022 alone, with weak systems making it easier to manipulate or mask digital trails.

To break this cycle, accountability must be embedded into the lifecycle of public expenditure. Projects should not merely be evaluated after implementation; they must undergo continuous, forensic monitoring from the planning stage through execution and reporting. Ministries that handle high-volume funds such as Works, Health, Defence, and Education should have dedicated forensic units integrated into their internal operations. These units, staffed by certified experts, would examine procurement records, verify deliverables, and track fund flows in real time.

Investing in Forensic Infrastructure

In addition, Nigeria must invest in and support the development of operational forensic laboratories and technical spaces equipped to examine documents, inspect digital records, test construction quality, and assess compliance. These labs should not exist in isolation, but form part of a national framework that supports real-time oversight. When matched with legislative backing and executive support, such an architecture would shift the country from performative audits to preventive controls.

Lessons from other nations underscore the urgency. In Chile and South Korea, forensic auditing and digital traceability have been institutionalized within the public finance system. Estonia, for instance, uses blockchain technology to track every transaction and ensure that public data remains tamper-proof. These innovations were not responses to crisis; they were proactive strategies to embed trust into governance.

Progress and the Path Forward

Nigeria has made some progress in this area. Institutions like the Chartered Institute of Forensics and Certified Fraud Investigators of Nigeria (CIFCFIN) have trained a new generation of forensic professionals. Pilot forensic audits have been conducted in partnership with the Office of the Auditor-General for the Federation (AuGF) and the Bureau of Public Procurement (BPP) to expand its capacity for contract oversight. What is now required is a unified push to scale these initiatives nationally, with mandates for forensic reporting built into major public programmes.

This must be a top-down and bottom-up reform. Federal and state governments should mandate that all projects above a certain threshold, say N100 million, are subject to forensic oversight. Reports should be independently certified and published in a centralized database accessible to oversight institutions and Civil Society Organisations (CSOs). Furthermore, agencies should be compelled to present annual forensic compliance reports alongside their budget submissions. This would link future allocations to past performance, creating a feedback loop that rewards transparency and penalizes opacity.

The Imperative for Change

I dare say that this is not about reinventing the wheel but about the will to act, instill professional integrity, and unwavering commitment to evidence-based governance. Without this, Nigeria will continue to suffer resource leakages, delay development, and disappoint its citizens. Indeed, a government that cannot verify its own performance cannot inspire confidence, and a system that lacks forensic traceability will always be vulnerable to manipulation.

What is ultimately at stake is more than public funds; it is public trust. In an era of increasing fiscal strain and development urgency, promises are no longer enough. Nigerians deserve a governance system that tracks, measures, and delivers, and a government that does not merely announce, but can prove. The future belongs to those who can back their words with facts, their budgets with results, and their intentions with verifiable action.

The path forward is clear. We must embed forensic protocols into the daily operations of governance. Not as an emergency response, but as a standard operating procedure. Not as a tool of punishment, but as a preventive measure. Not as a cosmetic reform, but as a foundational shift. This is how we can surely move from promises to proof, and from paper accountability to tangible progress.

Nigeria can no longer afford the luxury of guessing. It must know, with certainty; it must track, with precision; it must verify, with evidence. Only then can we in good conscience say that accountability has taken root.