Pheu Thai's Dangerous Gamble, Expert Warns

Political Maneuvering and Concerns Over Governance

Recent political developments in the country have sparked significant concern among political scientists, particularly regarding the actions of the Pheu Thai Party and the Bhumjaithai Party. The Pheu Thai Party has taken a bold step by petitioning for the dissolution of the House, while Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul is attempting to form a new government. Analysts warn that these moves carry varying degrees of risk and complexity.

Stithorn Thananithichot, a political science lecturer at Chulalongkorn University, believes that Pheu Thai has played its "last card" by seeking the dissolution of the House. He highlights the potential dangers of this strategy, as there is no legal framework specifying a timeframe for royal endorsement of such a move. This lack of clarity raises concerns about accountability if no response is received from the monarchy.

"If there is silence and no royal command is issued, who would be held accountable? The party risks being criticized for causing unrest and may suffer a sharp drop in popularity in any future election," Stithorn said. He further noted that even if the dissolution request is approved, the outcome could still be detrimental to Pheu Thai, which has seen its support base decline in recent months.

In contrast, Stithorn emphasized that Anutin must focus on forming a government and pressuring the House Speaker to convene a session for a prime ministerial vote. He pointed out that the Senate will not play a role in this process, so the key condition is that the motion must be placed on the agenda at least one day in advance or on Friday at the earliest. If a special sitting is called on Saturday, the vote could take place from Monday.

Focus on National Interest vs. Party Gain

Harirak Sutabutr, former vice rector at Thammasat University, expressed concerns about the prioritization of national interest over party or personal gain by politicians. He criticized both Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai for pursuing power rather than focusing on the public good. According to Harirak, the People's Party, which previously advocated for constitutional reform, acted in its own self-interest.

He also questioned the legitimacy of a caretaker government attempting to dissolve the House. In his view, a caretaker administration should only handle routine matters until a new cabinet is formed. Dissolving parliament at this stage, he argued, lacks political integrity and risks appearing as an abuse of royal authority.

Ongoing Negotiations and Uncertainty

Discussions between the government and opposition whips failed to reach an agreement on when to schedule the vote on Wednesday. The final decision rests with House Speaker Wan Muhamad Noor Matha, adding another layer of uncertainty to the political landscape.

The current situation reflects the complex interplay of legal, political, and constitutional considerations. As the nation watches closely, the actions of these parties will likely shape the future direction of governance and public trust in the political system.