'Blind Spots and Oversights' Reveal Flawed US Strategy in Rivalry with China: Da Wei

Assessing the Prospects of a China-US Trade Deal

Da Wei, director of Tsinghua University's Centre for International Security and Strategy in Beijing, provides insights into the ongoing negotiations between China and the United States. His research focuses on China-US relations and US security and foreign policy. In this discussion, he explores the potential for a trade deal and examines China’s role on the global stage in light of America’s current foreign policy.

Recent high-level trade talks between the two nations have resulted in an extension of the tariff truce by 90 days. Da Wei expresses cautious optimism about the possibility of reaching an agreement on tariffs. However, he emphasizes that success depends on how one defines it. If a deal is reached, it would be considered a success, and there is a good chance of achieving this, ideally later this autumn.

From the American perspective, China is the most important country when it comes to international trade relations. Without a deal, Trump’s policy agenda of redefining or adjusting the US external trade relations with the rest of the world will not be completed. Similarly, China seeks a deal to inject predictability into its external economic environment, which is beneficial for its economy. Politically, a trade deal could pave the way for a China-US presidential summit, which is crucial for the stability of bilateral relations.

Despite these positive signs, Da Wei acknowledges that the future level of tariffs may remain relatively high. He suggests that while a low tariff level similar to those with Europe, Japan, South Korea, or Britain is unlikely, a deal can still increase predictability, which is a positive outcome.

The Impact of the Trade Deal on China-US Relations

The outcome of the trade talks and any resulting deal will significantly influence the direction of China-US relations in the near future. While it is not a precondition for a summit, it is directly related to the political atmosphere and mutual trust. A deal could create a constructive atmosphere for bilateral relations and initiate a period of relative stability. However, if no deal is reached, the summit might be more challenging, leading to potential tensions.

Regarding the anticipated summit between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, Da Wei notes that Harvard professor Graham Allison predicted a "great balancing" where they might announce progress on trade, fentanyl precursor exports, and the TikTok issue. While he hasn’t read Allison’s piece, Da Wei believes such breakthroughs are possible, particularly on economic issues. Fentanyl, though not an economic issue, has economic implications. Reducing fentanyl tariffs could be another form of tariff cut, which is feasible but challenging given the Trump administration's demands.

TikTok, compared to other issues like tariffs and fentanyl, is a smaller and more isolated issue. Da Wei thinks it is possible to resolve and has already been negotiated for over half a year. President Trump’s personal investment in this case suggests that a mutually acceptable deal could benefit China-US relations.

Key Considerations for the Summit

A presidential summit is not a meeting between ordinary individuals. Da Wei highlights that if the two leaders plan to meet, it should be ensured that the summit is fruitful. This includes potential trade deals and mechanisms to address issues like TikTok and fentanyl. The Chinese side also aims to establish a mechanism for managing bilateral relations through regular meetings between economic, foreign policy, and military teams.

Additionally, the Chinese side seeks reassurance from the US regarding its policy on Taiwan. Recent developments show that Trump has increased engagement with China and softened his rhetoric, suggesting a shift in approach. However, Da Wei notes that Trump’s fundamental beliefs have not changed, and his strategic goals of reducing economic linkage with China and encouraging manufacturing to return to the US remain consistent.

Public Perception and Future Dynamics

Several recent polls indicate improving American public perception of China. Da Wei attributes this to the strong economic interdependence between the two countries and the unpredictability of US policies under Trump. While some Democrats and independents view China as more predictable than the US, the sentiment varies across political lines.

Da Wei also discusses the Chinese perspective on the US, noting that it has not changed much in the past six months and may even be worsening due to the US's unpredictable policies. He suggests that changes in US policy, particularly on the Taiwan issue and technological restrictions, could shift Chinese perceptions positively.

People-to-People Ties and Regional Dynamics

Da Wei emphasizes the importance of people-to-people ties between China and the US, expressing pessimism about their state under Trump. He notes that academic exchanges have not continued to decline but remain at a limited and difficult level. Post-pandemic recovery has been slow, and the situation has not improved significantly.

In Southeast Asia, traditional reliance on the US for security and China for economic growth remains. Da Wei believes that while the region continues to balance between China and the US, the balance is slightly tilting towards China in the next few years. The US’s unpredictable policies under Trump have created uncertainty, while China’s role in the region has become more significant.

China’s Role in the Ukraine War

Da Wei addresses China’s position on the Ukraine war, noting that its deep ties with Russia limit its ability to develop closer ties with Europe. He suggests that while China can contribute to peace and reconstruction efforts if invited, it is not a key player in ending the conflict. The US and EU are the primary actors, and China’s role remains secondary.

Global Leadership and China’s Position

As the US increasingly isolates itself from European and other countries, Da Wei questions whether China will fill the vacuum left by the Trump administration. He argues that while there is a vacuum, China lacks both the appetite and capability to replace the US as a global leader. Domestic challenges and the focus on economic and technological development take precedence over seeking global leadership.

In conclusion, while the US leaves a vacuum in global governance, no country is eager or capable of filling it. China will continue to focus on its domestic priorities while contributing to the international system.