Scientists Warn: Supervolcano Awakens, AI Discovers Four Times More Quakes

The Growing Concern of a Supervolcano in Italy

Experts have raised alarms about the potential dangers posed by a supervolcano located in Italy. This particular volcano, known as Campi Flegrei, is situated near Naples and has recently shown signs of increased activity. Over the past few months, a series of powerful earthquakes have shaken the region, drawing attention to the growing concerns surrounding this geological hotspot.

In May, the area experienced a magnitude 4.4 tremor, which was the strongest in 40 years. This event has sparked renewed interest among scientists who are now warning that the number of earthquakes in the area is actually four times higher than previously thought. This revelation suggests that more powerful and potentially devastating quakes could be imminent.

To better understand the seismic activity in the region, researchers have employed artificial intelligence (AI) to provide precise earthquake location and magnitude information in near real time. Using this technology, they discovered four times as many earthquakes as earlier tools had detected. This means that the number of recorded earthquakes between 2022 and 2025 has increased from 12,000 to over 54,000.

According to study co-author Bill Ellsworth, who co-directs the Stanford Center for Induced and Triggered Seismicity, these long faults suggest that an earthquake in the magnitude 5 range is not out of the question. He added that while the area has been known to be risky since the 1980s, when part of the city was evacuated, this study provides the first clear view of the geologic structures responsible for the activity.

Campi Flegrei, which translates to "burning fields," last erupted in 1538. Although it does not erupt frequently, the volcano has shown signs of unrest in recent decades. This volcanic region, home to more than 500,000 people, has experienced episodes of unrest dating back to the late 1950s. The most recent period of unrest began in 2005, with a significant increase in seismicity in 2018, including five earthquakes above a magnitude 4 in the first eight months of 2025.

The data revealed two faults converging under the town of Pozzuoli west of Naples, which has been continuously monitored since the early 1980s. During that time, unrest caused the land to rise more than 6 feet, prompting the evacuation of 40,000 residents due to more than 16,000 earthquakes.

Over the past 400,000 years, Campi Flegrei has produced two of the largest eruptions in Europe. While researchers have not yet seen any evidence of upward movement of magma within the volcano, this reduces short-term concerns about an eruption. However, earthquakes still pose a threat to lives and infrastructure.

Knowing the location and length of a fault can help experts determine the range of magnitudes of future quakes. According to study co-author Greg Beroza, a geophysics professor at the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability, the capability of getting a clear view of the seismic activity is now operational.

When the volcano eventually erupts, it is likely to be comparable in size to the eruption of Mount Vesuvius that destroyed the cities of Pompeii and Herculaneum. Some scientists have even predicted that if this sleeping giant awakens, it could create a plum large enough to plunge Earth into a global winter for years.

The latest findings were published in the journal Science, highlighting the importance of continued monitoring and research in this high-risk area.

A Rich Geological History

The Phlegraean Fields, or Campi Flegrei, have a rich history that dates back to ancient times. The Romans believed that an area called Solfatara, where gas is emitted from the ground, was the home of Vulcan, the god of fire. Additionally, one of the craters in the system, Lake Avernus, was referred to as the entrance to Hades in ancient mythology.

Campi Flegrei has also been a site of geological interest for centuries. In Charles Lyell's 1830 Principles of Geology, he identified the burrows of marine fossils at the top of the Macellum of Pozzuoli, an ancient Roman market building, concluding that the ground around Naples rises and falls over geological time.

Two eruptions have occurred at the site, one in 1158 at Solfatara and the other in 1538 that formed the Monte Nuovo cinder cone. More recently, the ground around Naples has shown signs that the supervolcano may be preparing to erupt again.

In 1969-72 and 1982-84, the Earth's crust in the area around Pozzuoli rose by 11 feet in just a few months. This phenomenon, known as bradisism, is a slow movement of the earth's surface, as opposed to fast movement due to an earthquake.

With ongoing research and advancements in technology, scientists continue to monitor the situation closely. The potential for another catastrophic eruption remains a concern, especially given the proximity of the volcano to densely populated areas. As the scientific community works to understand the risks associated with Campi Flegrei, the importance of preparedness and early warning systems becomes increasingly evident.