Bangkok Developers' Optimism Grows in Q3

Rising Sentiment in Greater Bangkok Housing Market

The sentiment index for housing developers in Greater Bangkok showed a slight improvement during the third quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter. This increase was primarily driven by the extension of property incentives, although overall confidence remained low as the index continued to hover below the median level.

According to data from the Real Estate Information Center (REIC), the Greater Bangkok Housing Developers' Sentiment Index reached 45.8 in the third quarter of 2025, marking an increase of 6.5 points from 39.3 in the second quarter. This figure represented the third-lowest level recorded since the survey began in late 2007.

One of the key positive factors contributing to the improved sentiment was the extension of reduced transfer and mortgage fees for homes valued at 7 million baht or less. These fees were lowered to 0.1% from 2% and 1%, respectively, making home purchases more attractive for potential buyers.

Another supportive measure came from the Bank of Thailand, which temporarily relaxed loan-to-value rules. Both of these incentives have been in effect since April 22, 2025, and May 1, 2025, respectively, and are set to remain in place until June 30, 2026.

Despite these positive developments, the second quarter still recorded one of the lowest sentiment levels on record. This was influenced by several external factors, including US reciprocal tariffs and the March 28 earthquake, which had a significant impact on the condominium sector.

The third-quarter sentiment index of 45.8 was slightly higher than the same period in 2024, which stood at 45.1. However, it remained below the median level of 50.0, indicating that confidence in the market remains weak and the outlook is generally negative.

Among the key components of the index, sentiment towards business performance saw the strongest improvement, followed by sales sentiment, sentiment on launching new projects or phases, and investment sentiment. In contrast, sentiment related to operating costs declined, as did employment sentiment.

Expectations for the Future

The expectations index, which reflects sentiment for the next six months, rose to 54.4 in the third quarter of 2025. This marked an increase of 4.1 points from 50.3 in the second quarter of 2025 and 2.8 points from 51.6 in the third quarter of 2024.

A reading above 50 indicates a positive outlook, with developers anticipating improvements in the housing market over the next six months. This optimism is supported by ongoing government stimulus measures that will continue to be in effect until June 30, 2026.

Among the key components of the expectations index, sales sentiment saw the strongest increase, followed by sentiment towards launching new projects or phases, business performance, employment, and investment. In contrast, sentiment related to operational costs declined.

Key Factors Influencing the Market

Several factors are influencing the current state of the housing market in Greater Bangkok:

• Government Incentives: The extension of reduced transfer and mortgage fees has made home ownership more affordable for many potential buyers.
• Loan-to-Value Rules: Temporary relaxation of these rules by the Bank of Thailand has helped boost developer confidence.
• External Challenges: Ongoing issues such as US tariffs and natural disasters have weighed down the market, particularly affecting the condo sector.
• Market Outlook: Despite some improvements, the overall sentiment remains below the median level, suggesting that the market is still facing challenges.

As the housing market continues to evolve, the role of government policies and external economic conditions will remain critical in shaping the future of the sector.