Europe Prepares for Harsh Winter as Gas Prices Soar Amid Energy Fears

Victor Zhao, a 36-year-old Chinese national who has lived in London with his family for six years, is increasingly concerned about the rising cost of heating. He shared, “Last winter, our heating bills ranged from 180 to 200 pounds (approximately 340,000 to 380,000 Korean won) each month. However, we recently received a notice from our supplier indicating that prices might increase further this year. We haven’t even used the heating yet and are relying on electric mats, but I’m deeply worried about what will happen when it gets colder,” he added.

Europe is now experiencing its fourth winter since the Russia-Ukraine war disrupted the energy market. Despite claims by various countries that they have secured enough natural gas reserves to handle the cold, anxiety remains widespread.

“This Winter Will Be Cold” Forecast Shakes Markets

According to Bloomberg on the 10th, European and American climatologists, including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), have predicted that the polar vortex—a cold, low-pressure cyclone formed in the upper troposphere to the stratosphere over the polar region—will weaken this winter. A weaker polar vortex allows cold Arctic air to move southward, resulting in colder weather across the Northern Hemisphere. This means the Northern Hemisphere, which had an unusually warm winter last year due to climate change, could face occasional “extreme cold snaps” this year.

Dan Hurt, a meteorologist at OpenWeather, a London-based weather company, said, “We need to monitor the polar vortex as we approach December.”

European natural gas prices, which had remained at their lowest levels in five years amid expectations of a relatively mild winter, reacted sensitively. According to the London ICE exchange, the December contract for the Dutch TTF, Europe’s benchmark, closed at 31.25 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh) on the 14th, up 2.6% from the previous day. The U.S. natural gas market is also rising. Recently, natural gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) surpassed $4.50 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), hitting their highest level in about three years since 2022.

EU Declares “Sufficient Gas Reserves,” but Anxiety Lingers

The European Union (EU) announced last month that natural gas storage levels had reached approximately 83%, ensuring robust supply stability ahead of winter. According to the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG)’s annual winter supply outlook report, current reserves are sufficient to meet EU demand. The report specifically stated, “Even if Russian natural gas and LNG imports are completely halted, there will be no supply disruptions.” This signals that the EU is on track to fully decouple from Russian gas.

The EU Energy Council decided to ban all Russian gas imports as of January 2028. The EU remains the largest importer of Russian gas, having purchased 5 billion euros (approximately 8.46 trillion Korean won) worth in the first half of this year alone. The phased reduction of Russian gas imports will begin next January.

However, some argue that the EU’s gas reserves may still be insufficient. Considering that reserves stood at 92.6% at the same time last year, an energy emergency could arise if this winter is colder than last year’s. In response, countries are expanding renewable energy to achieve “energy independence,” with France and Belgium planning to extend the lifespan of aging nuclear reactors or build new plants.

Meanwhile, the UK government has implemented policies to reduce energy consumption. Since last October, it raised the price cap on household gas and electricity bills by 35 pounds (approximately 70,000 Korean won) to prepare for a surge in winter heating demand. The energy price cap system, which applies to 20 million households across the UK, prevents charges from exceeding the cap. Expanding the cap means households could face higher bills depending on usage.

Locally, concerns are growing that ordinary households may struggle to afford rising energy costs. According to Ofgem, the UK’s independent energy market regulator, electricity usage from April to June was over 750 million pounds higher than the same period last year, and the number of households unable to pay energy bills during this period exceeded 1 million, setting a record high.