Focus: Thailand's Tough Path to Rebuild Ties with Cambodia Post-Ceasefire

Peace Agreement Between Thailand and Cambodia

A recent peace agreement between Thailand and Cambodia, signed in the presence of U.S. President Donald Trump, aims to de-escalate tensions between the two Southeast Asian neighbors following a deadly border dispute. However, questions remain about whether the accord will lead to tangible progress.

The expanded cease-fire agreement, finalized on October 26 in Malaysia, has been met with growing skepticism in Thailand. The government led by Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul faces internal pressure from the public and key members of the Thai armed forces. These groups question whether the agreement will ultimately resolve or even ease the conflict, especially during a time of rising nationalistic sentiment.

While Trump has taken credit for the deal, which Washington describes as historic, the absence of China—a key player that sought to mediate—has raised concerns. Some fear that this could be a precursor to another episode of geopolitical rivalry between the superpowers if the agreement fails.

Key Provisions of the Joint Declaration

Under the joint declaration, Thailand and Cambodia have agreed to implement a series of steps, including removing heavy weapons from the border and conducting demining operations. Once these measures are in place and hostilities cease, Thailand will release 18 Cambodian soldiers.

According to Thai army spokesman Winthai Suvaree, Thailand has already started removing heavy weapons such as tanks from the border area. A high-ranking Thai army source told Kyodo News that all key points in the declaration must be achieved "collectively" rather than selectively. This highlights the importance of the Thai government and military moving in the same direction to ensure the agreement's success.

The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, also revealed that the Thai military has prepared a "backup plan" in case Cambodia does not fully comply with the declaration. The army will evaluate the situation over time, and the return of the Cambodian soldiers will be the final step.

Escalating Tensions and Recent Events

Tensions between Thailand and Cambodia have escalated this year due to conflicting territorial claims. In May, a Cambodian soldier was shot dead by Thai armed forces, leading to clashes in July that killed dozens of people. At the time, Trump used the threat of tariffs to end the fighting, and the two sides eventually agreed on a cease-fire in late July.

The current Anutin government is in a better position than its predecessor, according to local pundits, due to stronger cooperation with the influential military. However, the implementation of the steps outlined in the joint accord will depend on how well the government can manage the recent wave of nationalism, which has seen increased support for the armed forces, particularly those responsible for the Thai-Cambodia border.

Political Challenges and Nationalism

Former Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra was removed by the Constitutional Court after a leaked telephone conversation with former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen. In the call, she expressed conciliatory sentiments toward Hun Sen while criticizing the commander of a Thai army division in the border area.

Panitan Wattanayagorn, a security and foreign affairs expert, emphasized the need for the government to involve Thai citizens and keep them informed. Otherwise, nationalism could escalate and prolong the conflict.

One of the pressing challenges for the cease-fire agreement to hold is the surge in transnational scam operations based in Cambodia. Close coordination with and involvement of China in efforts to clamp down on these operations are necessary, according to Wattanayagorn.

Role of China and Regional Dynamics

China has been seeking to mediate in the dispute despite its absence from the recent joint declaration. Under the accord, Thailand, a key strategic partner for the United States, and Cambodia, which has closer ties with Beijing, are set to boost information-sharing and suppress transnational crimes.

Hun Sen, now the president of Cambodia's Senate but still its most powerful political figure, has hailed the document as a step toward easing or ending tensions with Thailand. However, he noted that Cambodia never asked Thailand to reopen border crossings, which Bangkok maintains.

The border closure was done "unilaterally" by Thailand amid the clashes and would not harm Cambodia, he said. He added that it is up to Bangkok whether to keep the border closed for "even 500 years."

Building Trust and Restoring Bilateral Relations

Restoring bilateral ties will take time and commitment from both sides. According to Kavi Chongkittavorn, a veteran journalist on regional affairs, the participation of local communities is also critical. Programs must be prepared to ensure that local communities can meet and promote mutual trust.

Kavi emphasized that confidence can be built through increased local trade and exchanges that have been hindered by the dispute. Such initiatives are essential for long-term stability and reconciliation between the two nations.