Rising Down Jacket Sales Provide Unanticipated Inflation Shield in Mainland China

Rising Demand for Winter Wear in China

China's down jacket and coat manufacturers are experiencing a surge in sales, driven by strong demand for high-end winter wear. This trend is expected to continue for the next three months as colder weather sets in. Retailers like Bosideng, one of the country's leading brands, are benefiting from this increased interest in premium products.

According to a recent research report by Shanghai-based securities firm Shenwan Hongyuan Group, garment makers that offer winter-specific clothing have seen a significant boost due to the cold temperatures this year. The late arrival of the Lunar New Year, which falls on February 17, 2026, is also contributing to the prolonged high season for down jacket sales.

A buoyant winter clothing market could help cushion against deflation, especially given the weak consumer demand for daily essentials and big-ticket items. In the first nine months of the year, retail sales on the mainland increased by 4.5% compared to the previous year, reaching 36.6 trillion yuan (US$5.15 trillion), according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. However, consumer spending lagged behind the country's GDP growth of 5.2% during the same period.

Beijing has been focusing on expanding domestic demand to drive the economy over the past three years, but consumers have been hesitant to spend due to concerns about job prospects and income. Analysts suggest that this cautious approach has contributed to the current economic landscape.

Retailers had stockpiled down jackets in October due to heightened expectations of extreme cold weather this winter, according to Chinese media reports. Eric Han, a senior manager at Suolei, an advisory firm in Shanghai, noted that surging demand would lead to higher prices.

"Millennials and Gen Z consumers not only treat down jackets as winter clothes but also pursue fashion and style when shopping," he said. "They are willing to pay hundreds of yuan to buy those clothes that are to their liking."

Down jackets and coats are not very common in China, with only about 10% of the population owning such garments, according to Shenzhen-based market research firm Qianzhan Industry Research Institute. The mainland's market for down jackets was valued at about 200 billion yuan in 2023, according to Huayuan Securities. The market was likely to grow at an annualized 11% from 2024 to 2028, it forecast in a report last year.

Bosideng, China's largest down jacket maker, terms its products priced above 1,800 yuan as high end. The company reported that sales of premium down jackets and coats for the year ended March accounted for 30% of the total. Bosideng reported annual revenue of 25.9 billion yuan, an increase of 11.6% from a year earlier. Net profit jumped 14.3% to 3.5 billion yuan.

Chinese youth, who increasingly value self-care and emotional wellness, are likely to power high clothing sales, said Chen Xiao, CEO of Shanghai Yacheng Culture, a provider of marketing and branding services to multinational companies.

Meanwhile, down jacket brands are also facing high production costs. The price of duck down has been rising since the beginning of the year. The price of 90% white duck down, which refers to the down-to-feather ratio, broke through 570 yuan per kg this month, 34% higher compared with the beginning of the year, according to data provider Down Golden Network.

Key Trends in the Winter Clothing Market

• Increased Consumer Spending: Young consumers are showing a willingness to invest in high-end winter wear, viewing these items as both functional and fashionable.
• Market Growth Projections: The down jacket market in China is expected to grow significantly, with forecasts suggesting an annualized growth rate of 11% from 2024 to 2028.
• Impact of Seasonal Factors: The late arrival of the Lunar New Year is extending the peak sales period for winter clothing, creating additional opportunities for retailers.
• Production Challenges: Rising costs of raw materials, such as duck down, are putting pressure on manufacturers, potentially leading to higher retail prices.
• Economic Context: Amid weak consumer demand for other goods, the winter clothing market is providing a positive counterbalance, helping to mitigate deflationary pressures.

As the winter season continues, the demand for high-end winter wear is expected to remain strong, driven by a combination of seasonal factors, consumer preferences, and economic conditions.