Fears of Rationing as Electricity Demand Hits Fifth Peak

Record-Breaking Electricity Demand in Kenya

Kenya has witnessed a significant surge in electricity demand, with the peak demand reaching an unprecedented 2,418.77 Megawatts (MW) in November. This marks the fifth time this year that the country has set a new record for electricity consumption. The rising demand has raised concerns about the nation’s ability to meet its energy needs without resorting to power rationing.

Peter Njenga, Managing Director of KenGen, revealed that the peak demand was recorded last month, surpassing the previous high of 2,411.98 MW set in October. This increase highlights the growing challenge faced by Kenya in maintaining a balance between supply and demand.

Rising Consumption and Pressure on Local Production

The increasing demand is driven by a combination of factors, including industrial activity and a rise in household connections. As more people connect to the grid, the pressure on local electricity generation intensifies. Despite efforts to boost production, geothermal and hydroelectric sources—key components of Kenya’s energy mix—have seen minimal growth.

This stagnation in local production has forced Kenya Power to rely more heavily on imports from neighboring countries such as Ethiopia, Uganda, and Tanzania. These imports have become the fastest-growing source of electricity for the country, reflecting the urgency of addressing the supply gap.

Impact of Hydropower and Geothermal Generation

Hydropower and geothermal energy remain the backbone of Kenya’s national grid. However, their production has shown only marginal increases. For instance, hydropower generation from local sources rose by three percent to 3,504 Gigawatt-hours (GWh) during the period compared to 3,396 GWh a year ago. Meanwhile, geothermal energy saw less than one percent growth, reaching 5,718 GWh from 5,707 GWh in the same period.

Electricity imports, on the other hand, surged by 28 percent, reaching 1,534 GWh from 1,199 GWh in the same timeframe. This trend underscores the growing reliance on external sources to meet domestic needs.

Load Shedding and Government Response

To prevent a potential collapse of the grid due to the mismatch between demand and supply, Kenya Power has implemented load shedding in certain areas. This measure, which involves scheduled power cuts, is intended to manage the strain on the system.

Both Kenya Power and President William Ruto have acknowledged that without additional capacity, load shedding will be necessary to maintain grid stability. In response to this challenge, Parliament recently lifted a ban on new power purchase agreements, signaling a shift in policy aimed at expanding the country’s energy infrastructure.

New Opportunities for Energy Development

The lifting of the moratorium on new power purchase agreements has been welcomed as a positive step toward addressing Kenya’s energy deficits. According to Aleem Tharani, Edwin Baru, and Beatrice Ngunyi from Bowmans Kenya, this move represents a "decisive reopening" of the country’s power generation pipeline. However, the success of this initiative will depend on how quickly the new procurement processes are implemented.

Kenya has also entered into long-term agreements to import electricity from Ethiopia, with a 25-year deal in place. The power is currently priced at $0.065 (Sh10.2) per kilowatt-hour. The contract includes a clause that allows for tariff renegotiation starting in 2027, giving Kenya some flexibility in managing its energy costs.

Regional Cooperation and Future Prospects

Kenya has also established power exchange deals with Uganda and Tanzania, further strengthening regional cooperation in the energy sector. These partnerships highlight the country’s need to diversify its energy sources and ensure a stable supply.

As the demand for electricity continues to grow, the focus will remain on expanding local generation capacity and improving the efficiency of existing resources. With the right policies and investments, Kenya can work toward a more sustainable and reliable energy future.