China's military might aims to outproduce and outlast global rivals

China's Defense Industry: A Growing Force

China is on a mission to transform its military into a modern and formidable force. This transformation is being driven by the country’s massive defense industry, which is not only supporting China’s military goals but also has the potential to be further bolstered by the civilian manufacturing sector during wartime.

In the northeastern city of Shenyang, the future of China's defense manufacturing capacity is rapidly taking shape. An enormous new aviation industrial complex is under construction, set to occupy an area about the size of 600 football fields. This development highlights the scale and ambition of China's defense initiatives. The complex, owned by the Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, produces key military aircraft such as the J-15 carrier-based fighter and the advanced J-35 stealth fighter.

The report on this development emphasized the governor of Liaoning province's commitment to building a "world-class aerospace city." While specific details about the production lines remain undisclosed, the scope of the project has raised significant interest. Experts have noted that while China's military weapons have seen rapid progress, the country's ability to mass-produce these weapons in the event of prolonged conflict has become a focal point, especially given the ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Industrial Base and Scale

China's defense industry remains formidable, with a growing integration of information and digital technologies. Examples include China's carrier program, advanced surface ships, stealth aircraft, hypersonic missiles, and satellite programs. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) Arms Industry Database, at least four of China's state-owned arms companies ranked among the top 25 globally in 2019 based on the value of arms sales.

The U.S. Navy estimates that China's shipbuilding capacity is roughly 230 times larger than that of America. According to a report by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), China's largest state-owned shipbuilder constructed more commercial vessels by tonnage in 2024 than the entire U.S. shipbuilding industry has completed since the end of World War II. China's leading position in global shipbuilding has been maintained for 14 consecutive years, with its top five shipyards accounting for 62.9% of the global order book.

China's navy is the largest in the world, with a battle force of over 370 ships and submarines. The country launched its first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, in 2012, and has since built two more, including the Fujian, which is equipped with an electromagnetic catapult and expected to enter service this year. A fourth aircraft carrier, likely nuclear-powered, is reportedly being built in Dalian.

Economic Growth and Defense Spending

Despite China's slowing economic growth, its defense spending has remained stable, growing from 6.8% in 2021 to 7.2% in 2025. Analysts argue that maintaining stability in a time of global conflicts requires a strong defense capability. This includes accelerating the development and deployment of advanced weaponry, expanding production capacity, and ensuring that cutting-edge systems are available to meet national defense needs.

China's defense capacity is underpinned by its strong overall manufacturing base, which accounts for around 25% of global manufacturing output. Half of this output is considered dual-use, meaning it can serve both civilian and military purposes. Initiatives like "Made in China 2025" and military-civil fusion (MCF) aim to integrate civilian and military industrial bases, promoting the mutual transfer of technologies and resources between the two sectors.

Comparing US and Chinese Defense Capabilities

China's defense industry contrasts sharply with recent trends in the U.S. military. According to a report in The National Interest, the Chinese military is acquiring weapons "five to six times" faster than the U.S. This is attributed to the U.S. defense industry's bureaucratic challenges and supply chain issues. For example, the F-47 sixth-generation fighter jet faces a two-year delay, and the next Ford-class aircraft carrier is delayed until March 2027.

Experts suggest that China's comprehensive and self-sufficient industrial system gives it a significant advantage. This includes near-monopoly on rare metals critical for manufacturing missiles and munitions. According to the Rand Corporation, 18 of 37 minerals relevant to defense applications are concentrated in China.

Implications for Regional Conflicts

Recent regional conflicts highlight the importance of maintaining a robust stockpile. The war in Ukraine serves as a reminder that protracted conflicts require a defense industry capable of manufacturing enough munitions and weapons systems. In a CSIS war game examining a U.S.-China conflict in the Taiwan Strait, the U.S. typically expended more than 5,000 long-range missiles in three weeks of conflict.

Missiles and drones are critical to modern warfare, and China has the ability to produce both in large numbers. According to the Pentagon, China surpassed 600 operational nuclear warheads in mid-2024 and will have more than 1,000 by 2030. This capacity underscores the importance of production capabilities in sustaining combat power.

As China continues to invest in its defense industry, the implications for regional and global security are significant. The ability to produce and replace weapons quickly could give China a strategic advantage in any potential conflict.