Earthquake Clues May Unlock Prediction of Mount Etna's Next Eruption

Understanding Volcanic Activity Through Earthquake Patterns

Mount Etna, one of the most active volcanoes in the world, is located on the east coast of Sicily. It has experienced multiple eruptions each year, with the most recent one occurring in June of this year. While scientists have long been able to predict eruptions to some extent, a new study published in Science Advances introduces a groundbreaking method that focuses on analyzing earthquake patterns. This approach could lead to earlier and more accurate predictions, allowing for better preparedness.

Current Methods of Volcano Prediction

Scientists currently monitor Mount Etna by collecting data from various sources, including seismic, geological, geophysical, and geochemical indicators. These measurements help them understand how magma moves through the upper crust of the volcano. When magma reaches the surface, it transforms into lava, signaling an impending eruption. However, there is often limited time between receiving an alert and the actual eruption, which can be problematic for nearby communities.

The traditional methods rely heavily on monitoring these changes in magma movement, but they may not always provide sufficient warning. This has led researchers to explore alternative approaches that can offer more reliable early warnings.

A New Approach: Analyzing Earthquake Patterns

The new study, conducted by researchers from the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, takes a different perspective by examining earthquake patterns and their relationship with magma movements at deeper levels. Earthquakes and volcanic activity are closely linked, as both are influenced by tectonic plate interactions. Mount Etna sits at the boundary between the African and European tectonic plates, making it particularly susceptible to seismic activity.

Small and large earthquakes can influence the movement of magma beneath the volcano, potentially triggering an eruption. By studying these patterns, researchers aim to uncover early signs of volcanic activity that might not be visible through conventional methods.

The Role of the "b Value"

A key component of the study is the analysis of the "b value," which measures the ratio of small to large earthquakes. Researchers analyzed two decades of earthquake data from Mount Etna and found a correlation between the b value and volcanic activity. As magma rises through the crust, the b value changes, offering valuable insights into the potential for an eruption.

By tracking the b value over time, scientists can detect early signs of magma movement from deep within the volcano to its shallow portions. This information could be integrated into Etna’s existing surveillance system, enhancing the ability to assess and predict eruptions.

Importance for Communities Around Mount Etna

Early and accurate prediction of volcanic eruptions is essential for the safety of the communities living near Mount Etna. According to NASA, nearly one-third of Sicily's population resides along the slopes of the volcano. The June eruption produced ash plumes reaching 6.5 kilometers in height, highlighting the need for improved warning systems.

The researchers believe that this new method could significantly reduce the risk of catastrophic events, not only for Mount Etna but also for other similar volcanoes around the world.

Broader Implications for Volcanic Hazard Management

The study suggests that the b value could serve as an early indicator of eruptions in other volcanoes where sufficient earthquake data is available. This could lead to better management of volcanic hazards and improved public safety. By incorporating this method into existing monitoring systems, scientists may be able to provide more timely and accurate warnings, ultimately saving lives and reducing the impact of volcanic disasters.